X-REVs: The future of automobiles.

Hybrids are currently about 1% of the total market in the U.S. I’ve seen predictions that say hybrids will reach about 10% within 10 years. I personally don’t agree with those predictions. In fact, I see hybrids being completely replaced by Extended Range Electric Vehicles (X-REVs) within that same time period. Let me explain why.

First, why do we need to switch from gasoline at all? Most experts will agree that in the long term, we are headed for purely electric drive cars. One big reason is, we have a limited supply of petroleum and it is used in MANY other products (plastics, for example) which we really need to keep making because we don’t have good replacements. Another reason is the fact that burning petroleum is just a horrible thing to do to the planet we live on. Plus, electricity can (and should) be generated from renewable sources. The bottom line is, switching to electric drive for our vehicles is really an eventuality, not simply a possibility.

So, let’s just agree we’re eventually headed for purely electric vehicles. Why can’t we just start switching now and get it over with? Why not make all new cars electric? Well, we can’t. The reason is simple. The technology just isn’t there, and won’t be for a very long time to come.

Sure, we have decent electric motors already. In fact, electric motors are really powerful and produce instantaneous, flat, and extreme levels of torque. Freight trains have been pulled by electric motors running off diesel generators for many years. One of the fastest and most responsive cars on the market is a pure electric vehicle called the Tesla Roadster. It goes from 0-60 in 3.9 seconds. The electric motor is also much more energy efficient than the gasoline engine. More of the energy consumed actually makes it to the pavement. You get more power for less energy. The bottom line is, the electric motor is really great for driving the wheels on a car.

The reason we can’t all switch to electric cars now is the batteries. While every other technology has advanced very quickly, batteries have proceeded at a virtual snail’s pace. Batteries have always been and still are a horrible way to store energy. You get far less out than you put in. Further, there is only so much space available for batteries in a vehicle, in order to still leave room for passengers and their stuff.

Unfortunately, filling the available space with even our best current battery technology stores only enough energy to take a car about 40-60 miles on a charge. If you have a 20 mile commute, one way, that means you MUST remember to plug in your car every single night or it will be dead and useless in the morning. Plus, our current battery technology generates a lot of heat (wasted energy) and takes much too long to charge after it is drained.

Then there is the fact that almost nobody wants a purely electric car. Yeah, I said it. I’m sure I’ll hear from the few who NEVER take a trip longer than 20 miles, and who have the discipline to plug it in every night, but the vast majority of us aren’t like those people. We are forgetful people who like flexibility and dependability because our lives are chaos and our transportation needs change daily.

The hard reality is, mass acceptance of purely electric vehicles is a LONG way off. Maybe 30 years or more. Why? Two reasons – People are far more afraid of their batteries going dead than they ever were of running out of gas. This because a battery recharge takes HOURS of sitting at a few specific locations and filling the tank takes minutes at tons of convenient locations. What if you forget to plug your car in overnight? You have no car. That’s unacceptable.

People also want to be able to take long driving trips without stopping for many hours of recharge sessions every 40 miles. You can’t do that with current purely electric cars, and it doesn’t look like that level of technology is going to appear for a very long time. Purely electric vehicles will not become the norm until the battery technology allows people to drive all day (or commute all week), only stopping for quickie food, fuel, and restroom breaks. People can do that now with gasoline cars. They won’t give it up without a fight.

Hybrids are really the first of two steps needed to get us from petroleum to electric. Hybrids still drive the wheels with a gasoline motor and use the electric motor as a performance “boost” when needed. For this reason, they only need a small amount of battery capacity. Because they still use a gasoline engine as the primary motive power, they operate and refuel just like the cars people use now. They require no change in behavior.

I believe the next step in this evolution is extended range electric vehicles (X-REVs). In an X-REV, the small gasoline motor always idles. It only drives a generator. The gas generator basically charges the batteries constantly in what is essentially an electric car. The X-REV’s wheels are driven by an electric motor. There is no kinetic connection at all between the gas motor and the wheels. Yes, you can still plug X-REVs in every night to charge it and save a fortune on fuel, but it won’t make the car unusable if you forget occasionally.

That’s really a key feature. X-REVs are the next step because they provide that one critical ability. Your battery can run out after 40 miles and you can keep on driving for as long as your conventional fuel allows – 300 miles or even more. Fill your tank whenever it’s low and keep driving. You could forget to plug it in half the time and still get to work  every day just fine. That’s peace of mind people absolutely need when making the transition.

Plus, swapping to better batteries as technology progresses will also improve your fuel savings allowing you to travel further before using any gas at all. If replacement batteries get good enough sooner than expected, you might eventually stop putting gas into the car at all. That makes it the perfect transition vehicle. You can slowly shift into the habit of charging your car regularly without being severely punished if you forget.

Plus, the conventional fuel used to extend the range could be nearly anything, from gasoline, to compressed natural gas, to hydrogen or diesel. Anything that can run the generator, works. In fact, if the manufacturers design the generator and fuel storage in a modular way, the fuel you use to extend the range could even change over the years without replacing your vehicle. This is yet another advantage.

Imagine when gasoline hits $10 a gallon in 5 years. You simply pop in a compressed natural gas (CNG) generator module which you refill from a compressor installed in your garage. Hook the compressor to your natural gas line and bingo, you can fill your own tank at home. If you are running low, you could use the CNG compressors at friends’ or relatives’ houses. Even gas stations would start installing CNG pumps.

Or imagine something drastic happens which suddenly cuts off our oil supply. (Can you say “embargo?”) If the only fuel available is an electrical outlet and you are one of the smart ones who drives an X-REV, you can still use your car for 40 miles a day while all those gasoline cars sit around useless or wait in long lines for gasoline. You win!

In fact, if we develop future-fuel generators which put out more energy than needed by the electric drive motor, you wouldn’t even need the batteries. That would mean your X-REV is suddenly a fully electric car with minimal modification. Replace the generator “module” and it’s an electric car. Keep the car you love longer and just swap out one module.

Heck, imagine someday eventually putting in a tiny nuclear generator that would allow you to drive non-stop for 5,000 years without ever recharging. You could drive it until it is a pile of dust and never refuel again. At the rate we’re going with batteries we might have tiny reactors long before we have decent batteries, anyway. Even glacial-paced solar technology is progressing faster than batteries and that’s just plain sad.

So, for long-term flexibility and dependability, the X-REV would be the perfect choice as our long term transition vehicle to get us off our addiction to oil and move us toward an electric future. In an oil crisis, X-REVs could save us. If fuel technology changes quickly, they could save us. If we forget to plug it in, they could save us. For those long drives to grandma’s house, they could save us. X-REVs are the best of all worlds. So in my opinion, they really should replace hybrids as the car of choice while we wait for the distant promise of purely electric vehicles. They deliver the benefits of electric for your daily commute while giving you the flexibility of gasoline cars for any other situation that comes up.

If you want to see what I’m talking about, the Chevy Volt is the first shining star in what I hope will be a very bright future for X-REVs. “TIME.com” was very impressed with this technology. Personally, I can’t wait to see what other car companies come out with to compete with the Volt. If the development rumors are true, our automotive future looks brighter than ever. In these times of rampant bad news, it’s nice to realize we might have a better future just around the bend.

Technorati Tags: Chevy Volt,X-REV,extended range electric,future vehicles,alternative fuels

Web site updated!

My blog site now located at www.oilpainterbill.com!

Check out my new combined web site!

I previously had my paintings located at this web site. Now, it is a combined site, displaying both my blog and my paintings. Development will continue on this new site in the future so be sure to bookmark this location. Thanks for stopping by!

NetSlate: A dream future for human knowledge.

Google recently swung a deal where old orphaned works would be scanned onto its servers and made accessible via the Internet. This could make millions of previously out-of-print works instantly accessible to the entire world via web browsers. The works would comprise every type of creative work man produces, from the written word to recordings and films. This may not sound like an Earth-shaking deal to many, but it stirred up an old dream I had about the future of human knowledge on planet Earth.

In the future, I always saw the world using futuristic NetSlates. What is a NetSlate? Imagine this. Your personal NetSlate can run for weeks without charging. It has virtually unlimited bandwidth for displaying any type of media. The ultra-high-speed connection is bi-directional allowing interaction between an unlimited number of these devices in real-time. It has an ultra-high resolution, wide-color gamut display. It has incredible audio capabilities built-in, too. Perhaps it can even project full-color imagery or interfaces in 3 dimensions when it lies flat on a table surface. The device is incredibly thin, perhaps even flexible and weighs next-to-nothing.

Sounds great right? It’s like a cross between the most powerful supercomputers, the best graphics workstations, and the lightest, thinnest, tablet PC’s available today. Think nuclear-powered Kindle on steroids. Also, think unlimited cheap wireless bandwidth. Ok got the picture?

Now, imagine literally everyone can own a NetSlate because they are dirt cheap. In fact, they’re free in many cases because advertisers give ad-supported versions away constantly. They all display basically the same information and media. Our NetSlates are totally compatible with one another because they all feed from open format, world-standard files stored on insanely fast servers connected to the wireless super Internet of the future. This is an idealist future I’ve babbled on about for a couple of decades to my wife, family, and friends (started thinking about this device back in the pre-WWW “CompuServe” days). I believe this is where we are finally headed now.

For proof, simply put that Google media-scanning deal in the early development context of that not-too-distant future vision of NetSlates. Everyone owns a NetSlate and all the information ever created by mankind is available instantly to all  of us. These early scanning efforts and other efforts by Google to put literally everything online are the baby steps needed to reach that admittedly idealistic NetSlate future.

In fact, the Amazon Kindle could be seen as another of those baby steps toward ubiquitous access to knowledge and the ideal of a futuristic NetSlate. Amazon has 250,000 publications available for the Kindle. Imagine if the device were also a high-speed, non-DRM, unlimited-bandwidth, browsing device pointed directly at Google’s scanned-information storehouses. Adding millions more creative works which are currently out of print would make the Kindle vastly more useful than it already is. If Google and Amazon were to combine their future efforts and stick to open worldwide standards, the significance of their separate baby steps would become even more important toward the long-term future of human knowledge.

Imagine a future where bulky books, magazines, cables, and plastic discs are replaced by slim personal devices with always-on, unlimited, wireless connections to limitless media and information. Imagine there literally being no limitations to the information you could explore on your device. The barriers between us would fade as we all gain equal access to all knowledge and information.  Now, that’s an exciting future, right? We will absolutely have the technology to do all of this in the not-too-distant future.

Unfortunately, my NetSlate dream will likely never fully happen. Why not? Didn’t I just say we’ll have the technology? Yes, I did. But technology won’t be the limiting aspect of this ideal future. The NetSlate future won’t happen because we’ll never be given access to the total of human knowledge, no matter how far technology progresses. Knowledge is power, so it just won’t happen.

The rich and powerful control the masses by throttling information. They monitor and control the sources, the quantity, the quality, and the accessibility of all information and that is largely how they maintain their power over the middle and lower classes who far out-number them. The NSA and HSA now routinely monitor all information flow, thanks to the laws passed by the scared old men sitting in Congress. Their regular efforts to regulate the Internet are another demonstration. If literally everyone had access to all human knowledge, the most powerful would lose one of their best tools in controlling us. So they will do their best to prevent this ideal future from ever happening. Just watch the news and you’ll see it.

For example, those same scared old men in Congress created laws which legalize the extortion of children and grandmothers by rich media companies (like Sony, EMI, Universal, Warner, Disney, Viacom, and others). Those rich media companies now get insane amounts of control over what we do with the products we purchase from them. They take gestapo-like actions against completely innocent individuals and then are not held accountable for their extortion attempts. They aren’t even required to provide proof that a law was broken before they begin their extortion and harassment process. In this way, they have more power than the local police.

These rich media companies amuse themselves by bankrupting poor college students who didn’t cost them a dime of profit because they couldn’t afford the media product to begin with. This tactic often takes a potential college graduate, who would have later purchased products from them for decades, bankrupts them, and puts them out on the street. So, in place of a high-earning college graduate, the rich media companies create a college dropout who hates them and will never purchase another product from them. Why would these media companies do something so stupid? It’s all about control. They are blinded by their hunger for power and control, so they shoot themselves in the foot over and over.

Yes, the technology will someday exist to create NetSlates we can all afford. The technology will someday exist to create high-bandwidth wireless connections for those NetSlates which will allow all of us equal access to vast stores of online information. The question is: What information will be available to us when that full-blown technology finally arrives? That’s where the bright future of the “NetSlates ideology” falls apart.

It will be the rich and powerful who will kill my dream of “widespread access to all knowledge via NetSlates.” It will be the evil efforts of greedy media companies which will kill our future ubiquitous wireless knowledge and media access. Yes, we may get some useful subset of my NetSlate dream, but we will never realize its full-blown potential. We will never be allowed full access to all of human knowledge and creative works. That is the bittersweet reality we live in. Those in power will always control our access.

Technorati Tags: NetSlate,Congress,DMCA,EFF,Fair Use,MPAA,Music,technology,tablet PC,broadband wireless,Kindle,RIAA,future,predictions

Quick Look: Silver-Oxide/Silver-Zinc – batteries of the future?

Everyone who uses laptops or cell-phones these days is at least partially aware of the battery technology everybody uses in those devices. Lithium-ion and lithium-polymer batteries have literally changed the world of portable devices, making them lighter, while also extending useful battery life. They have become the most common type of battery used in consumer rechargeable devices.

Their drawbacks? They generate a lot of heat and are prone to catch fire or even explode in some instances. They are also not very environmentally friendly. Because of these drawbacks, at least one company saw an opportunity to create a safer, greener alternative.

The alternative comes in the form of silver-oxide or silver-zinc technology. Silver-zinc batteries can run up to 40% longer than the equivalent lithium-ion battery. Over 95% of the primary elements in the battery can be recycled. There are no heavy metals or toxic chemicals in modern silver-zinc batteries. Plus, their water-based chemistry make them free from the risk of thermal runaway, fire, and explosion. The primary drawback? Cost. These batteries will cost significantly more than equivalently-sized lithium-ion. Silver, after all, isn’t cheap.

There is little doubt that these batteries are a safer, greener, longer-running choice for laptops and cell-phones. With a little more development, their future looks very bright. The technology has the backing of some heavy hitters, as well. For example, Intel Capital has invested in a silver-zinc battery manufacturer named Zinc Matrix Power (ZMP). The only question seems to be, when will we see them in widespread use?

From my quick search on the web, it looks like several laptop manufacturers are in the process of examining silver-zinc batteries for use. ZMP claims at least one laptop maker already has designs in the queue with an eye toward introduction in their high-end laptops in mid 2009. Eventually, we may even see after-market, drop-in replacement batteries engineered to retrofit older laptops with this safer technology. Expect advertising to tout extended run times and the “green” aspects as major selling points, but also expect to pay a hefty premium for those features. Are the extra safety and green features worth the price? That’s for you to decide.

I’ll keep you posted as I find out more.

Technorati Tags: silver-zinc,silver-oxide,batteries

Windows 7 cripple-ware: Five crippled versions add insult to Vista injury.

In case you haven’t already heard the uproar, Microsoft has made yet another decision nobody understands. As a follow-on to their largely-ignored Windows Vista, Windows 7 is working its way toward store shelves sometime later this year. Unfortunately, Microsoft has chosen to ignore the public outcry surrounding their Vista version madness. In a decision that shocked many, they announced that they plan to release 6, yes SIX, versions of Windows 7. For those keeping score, that amounts to 5 crippled versions and 1 complete version.

If that marketing department insanity weren’t bad enough, the announcement of the most severely crippled version is, in my opinion, specifically-geared toward insulting folks living in less-fortunate countries. Even worse, we lowly consumers won’t be allowed to buy the complete version in any store. More on this odd twist later.

Here are the announced versions of Windows 7:

• Windows 7 Starter Edition (for emerging market and netbook users)
• Windows 7 Home Basic (for emerging market customers only)
• Windows 7 Home Premium (the main “Media Center” equivalent)
• Windows 7 Professional (the business SKU for home users and non-enterprise licensees)
• Windows 7 Enterprise (for volume licensees)
• Windows 7 Ultimate (for consumers who want/need business features)

Microsoft says that this lineup was created based on input from users. (Seriously? Anyone believe that?) As proof, they say they came up with a great solution for the many who think there are too many versions. They will only allow you to buy two out of the six versions at retail.

I’m not making that up. That was their “brilliant” solution. The two versions that will be sold at retail are Home Premium and Professional. This means the complete OS (Ultimate) is only available as an upgrade after you buy a crippled version. They seemed so proud of themselves for thinking of this solution, it almost makes me feel guilty, like I’m poking fun at the mentally-impaired, to point out the complete absurdity of it.

Frankly, it sounds to me like somebody with a lot of “pull” at Microsoft is heavily-vested in the “purchase-then-upgrade” model and simply refuses to let it go, no matter how stupid it is. I’d love to know who that idiot is, so I could post the name everywhere. Bill Veghte, Senior Vice President of the Windows business has come out in defense of this plan, so perhaps the buck stops there? Somebody should ask him where the obsession with selling upgrades started.

As you can tell, I have numerous problems and more than a little bitterness regarding this obvious profit-pumping ploy. Perhaps, I should take a moment to elaborate on what bugs me about it.

Here are the top 10 things I hate about this announcement:

1. They are asking consumers who want the complete OS to pay twice in order to get it. That’s worse than simply inconvenient.
2. They are starting with a complete OS and removing ever larger portions of it to arbitrarily create half a dozen crippled versions of that OS for the sole purpose of pumping more money out of us later with upgrades.
3. The most heavily-crippled version is an insult to the intended market, considering that even the complete OS will run on the intended equipment without any problem whatsoever.
4. They could sell us the entire complete OS for exactly the same price as the cheapest crippled version and STILL make a hefty profit by reducing the numerous costs associated with selling so many crippled versions.
5. I am insulted by their assumption that all home users do not need encryption or the ability to log onto a domain.
6. I am annoyed by the fact that they feel they can choose which features I need installed on my systems better than I can. Give me everything and I’ll make the choices while installing.
7. I am sensitive to manipulation by marketing morons and alarm bells go off when I see somebody intentionally crippling their product to artificially create the “option” of upgrading it later.
8. The assumption that one billion users can be perfectly served by releasing 6 versions is as ridiculous as saying the vast majority of the public can be served by 2. A complete OS will serve more users than either 2 or 6 versions. If their intention really is to serve the needs of the most people, they would be selling one version and letting the individuals decide what to remove.
9. They are lying to my face and I don’t like it. Their press release said they listened to users and came up with this solution. I’ve seen and heard a LOT of users complaining very publicly about the Vista version-overload fiasco. Microsoft ignored us all. Windows 7 is simply Vista marketing mistakes, take two.
10. I am really annoyed that they learned nothing despite the efforts of so many to inform them of the things they did wrong with Vista. I feel like we wasted our collective breath trying to convert a cash-obsessed company run by their marketing department into a modern, consumer-oriented technology company.
11. BONUS reason: Their rip-off approach makes me feel like I walked into one of those cult-like buyers’ clubs where high-pressure salespeople continue to insist their prices are better even when you hand them reams of proof that the equipment they sell is both out-of-date and overpriced.

Truth be told, I’m disappointed, frustrated, and angry with Microsoft. I’ve purchased and used their products for as long as they’ve existed as a company, including all prior versions of Windows. (Yes, even 1.0 – yuck!) I’ve owned numerous copies of their developer tools and Office products. I was using Word and Multiplan on MS-DOS before there was an Excel or even Windows. Before Vista came along, their products were always worth the price to me. That has changed. With their rip-off marketing approach to Vista, and now Windows 7, my respect for Microsoft is gone.

Many are asking the question, “What can we really do about big companies like Microsoft who rip us off like this?” Well, there is really only one thing we can do. Don’t buy their products. Companies like Microsoft have stockholders. Stockholders get annoyed when the company doesn’t make any money. If profits tank, the stockholders and Board of Directors get involved. Then, heads start rolling and drastic changes are made.

Before Vista, Microsoft was a very profitable, steadily-growing company. When Vista was released after 6 years of development, the cold reception it received killed their momentum and created a lot of internal tension. When stockholders started asking for explanations, the quick-thinking management explained it all away as being solely due to 3rd party driver issues.

However, Microsoft completely ignored the second source of public irritation with Vista. They didn’t address version madness and the resulting feeling among consumers that Microsoft is trying to rip us off by selling us cripple-ware and then pushing upgrades on us to get the features we really need.

Sure, Windows 7 has the drivers mostly working now, and it includes some great fixes to many Vista shortcomings, but Microsoft still didn’t address the version madness. In fact, they made it worse. Not only do they plan to release a bunch of crippled versions, but we can’t even buy the complete version. We are forced to buy a crippled version and then pay for an upgrade later. Every time I say that, I shake my head in amazement at their stupidity in coming up with that “solution.”

So, why do they have so many versions to begin with? The reality is, it costs them far more to press, package, distribute, maintain, and support 6 different versions of Windows than one. So, why do it? The answer is, they believe they will make more money on the upgrades they sell later. They removed just enough features in each crippled version that they believe everyone will be forced to buy an upgrade at some point in the future.

Personally, I don’t believe that’s what will actually happen. It didn’t happen with Vista. Using that tactic to squeeze a few more dollars from us just pisses people off and makes them look even harder at the variety of excellent modern alternatives to Microsoft’s OS.

Here is what I, and many others, believe: If Microsoft sold one complete version, they could charge substantially less for that single version. In fact, if they sold the complete version for the price of the cheapest crippled version, they would likely make more money than they will by pissing people off with their buy-then-upgrade tactics. More people would buy Windows 7. They would buy it sooner. They would buy it at a faster pace. Combine that with the reduced costs of a single version, and you get larger cash flows, bigger profits, and happier stockholders. Unfortunately, they don’t see this and are continuing down their obsessive path to nowhere.

While Windows 7 might do better sales numbers than Vista eventually, I still don’t see it taking off like it could if they took a more consumer-friendly approach. Think about it. People are now very apprehensive about buying Windows after the way they were treated by Microsoft with Vista. Treating them like that a second time will be far more difficult to repair. Word of mouth killed Vista’s momentum. By continuing the version madness of Vista, they have already created a lot of negative buzz before Windows 7 is even released. I feel this is a mistake they may live to regret.

On a more positive note for some consumers, Apple sells one complete version of their OS for one reasonable price, which is what people really want. We all want more for less. With Windows 7 being mostly internal fixes to Vista, and continuing the rip-off, crippled-version, insanity of Vista, I don’t see anything at all to stand in the way of Apple’s continued climb in market share. More people jumping to Apple’s platform, will mean more software and hardware developed for that platform, which will draw even more Apple converts.

So, if you own Apple stock, rejoice. Your future looks bright! With this Windows 7 announcement, Microsoft has, once-again, made it much easier to take away their market share.

del.icio.us Tags: Windows 7,Windows,Vista,Microsoft,Apple

Windows 7 Beta, Hot or Not? Part 1: First Look

To say there is some hype surrounding the Microsoft’s upcoming Vista replacement would be an incredible understatement. While the reasons for this hype range from “disappointment with Vista” to “slow news season,” everyone can agree on one thing. Windows 7 will be Microsoft’s best chance at redemption after a mostly dismal Vista run.

Since Microsoft released Windows 7 Beta, I thought it would be a great idea to post my own experience with installing, configuring, and using the Windows 7 Beta on my own Vista-compatible hardware.  So, to start things off, I went online and downloaded the ISO of Windows 7 Ultimate Beta 64 bit. I’ll just call it W7 for the remainder of this article. Then, I used Nero to burn the ISO file to a DVD.

Installation:

Because of my requirements, I performed a slightly different than usual installation process. Since I’m testing W7B on my primary computer, which I use to do other things, I decided to put it on its own drive and dual-boot my system. I grabbed an old Maxtor 500GB drive I had on a shelf and bolted it into my case. Inside Vista, I partitioned the second drive, set it active, and formatted it as NTFS. Then, I rebooted from the DVD and selected that second drive when prompted for the location. In total, the install took maybe 30 minutes tops. It probably would have gone quicker if I wasn’t using an older (slower) drive. I had to answer perhaps 5 questions in total during the process before the system finally rebooted into W7 for the first time.

First run:

The first thing I noticed after getting into W7 was the landscape of the slightly-tweaked desktop. Even to folks like me who used a double-height taskbar in both XP and Vista, this new taskbar is obviously different from the previous generations. The Start button is there, but next to it are big icons for quick launch. The standard icon tray is next, followed by the clock and one more oddity. There is what looks like a skinny button with no label or icon on the far right end of the taskbar.

Moving my mouse over this skinny button, the windows on the screen turned into transparent window frames so that I could see my desktop. I’m not sure what purpose is served by turning ALL of my windows transparent. I could see turning the top window transparent so that I can see the window underneath, but a button to let me quickly look at my wallpaper? My guess is that it might allow you to view Sidebar gadgets on the desktop, but that isn’t clear with no label on the button. I’ll let you know what I figure out on that one when I setup the gadgets in part 2.

Next, I clicked the Start button to see what was different. The look of the menu is familiar, but the contents have changed. Search seems to be more prominent somehow. The menu seems simplified, maybe too much so for my tastes. There is still no Videos folder listed with Pictures and Music. The first item on the left is a link to that Welcome dialog. Other than that, it doesn’t look much different at first glance.

Bringing up Windows Explorer, I see libraries. This seems to be a system-wide addition. It probably even shows up in file open dialogs. If you are familiar with iTunes, you know that you can have two songs in your music library that are actually located in two different folders on your hard drive. This is the difference between the “library” and the “folders” in W7, too. You can have songs all over your hard drive and have them all show up in one folder in your music library. In fact, I suspect they could be on different physical drives and be in the same library folder. I’ll test this later.

As I poked around using the new Windows Explorer, I noticed something annoying. I didn’t see any filename extensions or hidden directories or files. So, I searched for the option to turn those back on. Nothing. As far as I’ve been able to find so far, there isn’t a way to make Windows Explorer display hidden items anymore. Perhaps I’m looking in the wrong place, but I find this really annoying.

I decided it was time to install my favorite browser (Firefox) so I opened Internet Explorer to jump online to download the 64 bit version. Looks like they shipped the Beta of Internet Explorer 8 with W7. I typed “64 bit Firefox” into the search field, hit enter, and boom. Internet Explorer 8 crashed. I closed it and tried again with better results, but it continued to behave oddly with delayed responses to clicks and scrolling. IE8 doesn’t seem like a Beta to me. More like pre-Alpha. It eventually worked long enough to (slowly) download Firefox 64 onto my computer, which is all I needed it to do.

After telling Firefox to install, a UAC prompt popped up asking me if it was ok to allow this program to install. I clicked the first prompt, fully expecting more to pop up as it progressed, but nothing happened. It installed and was done. Wow, UAC has changed! That’s when I realized I had been poking around at stuff for quite a while without ever seeing a UAC prompt pop up.  It only appeared when I was actually installing something. Nice change! I looked at the settings on this and immediately discovered there are multiple levels of prompting you can set or you can turn it completely off. I’m thrilled with this.

So what is the score at this point?

Install: The install process has definitely improved. Seemed faster and less annoying. Fewer reboots, for me at least, and less user involvement aside from basic information. Networking already worked when the OS came up.

Taskbar: This is different, but it isn’t clear whether this is better or worse yet, so I’ll call that one a wash at this point.

Windows Explorer: This is both better and worse. It’s probably better for new users because it hides things that could hurt them and simplifies finding things. It’s worse for advanced users who want to be able to view ALL the information and files on their systems.

Internet Explorer: This is decidedly worse at this point, largely due to the extreme instability and flakiness of what they floated as a beta release.

User Access Control (UAC): This is VASTLY improved. The default setting out of the box warns of drastic actions without being the annoying pain in the ass which prompted most power users to turn it off entirely in Vista. Big plus on this one.

Stability: I’ll update on this as I use it longer. So far, not a single OS crash, hang, or reboot. This OS is really solid for a Beta release. It’s the polar opposite of the IE8 Beta, in my experience so far.

So the score after my first look is a mixed bag. Overall, I think it looks much improved for average users, but power users may get annoyed by some of the walls they have built around parts of the OS. Just avoid using IE8.

In my next post, I’ll take a closer look at some of the improvements and annoyances I discover about this new OS as I continue to use it.

Technorati Tags: Windows 7 Beta,Microsoft,Windows 7,Windows,UAC,IE8

Apple “iPad Touch” netbook coming in July 2009?

I’ve been hearing a lot of rumors about Apple possibly introducing a netbook in 2009. After listening to all of the rumors and putting a little intuition and imagination to work, I’ve come up with what I think may be part of that Apple netbook package. I’ll go through the components one by one. (mockup photo by artist Edwin Tofslie)

The GPU: The widely accepted rumor is that the newly-released Imagination Technologies four core PowerVR GPU will be used in the next iPhone. I believe it may actually be targeted at an Apple netbook in order to drive a significantly larger display than what is in the iPhone and iPod Touch while maintaining very low power drain. Plus, it will have plenty of horsepower to view HD iTunes content when being used as a multimedia device.

The CPU: ARM Cortex A9. Again, the chip is something everyone else is targeting as an iPhone candidate. I believe it is headed for an Apple netbook. I believe Apple wants to squeeze amazing battery life from a slim tablet-style netbook and this multi-core chip is powerful enough to do the job while maintaining much better energy efficiency than an Intel Atom.

The OS: Ok, it is a given that it will be OS X based, but I believe it will be a scaled-up version of the iPhone operating system rather than a scaled-down version of the desktop OS. The new OS will possibly be a superset of firmware 3.0. It may even run most of the same applications, considering the CPU and GPU being used. It may have a launcher screen similar to the iPhone/iPod Touch, as well.

The SCREEN: I believe it will be a full-screen multi-touch device, just like the iPhone and iPod Touch, only larger. It may be about the same thickness, while being wider and longer. The keyboard will be software-based with new support for copy/paste and other functions introduced in firmware 3.0. The screen will likely be in the 7-9 inch range with high DPI rating for beautiful images and multimedia content. It won’t be much larger, because thumb typing on a larger screen in landscape mode would prevent you from reaching the middle keys with your thumbs.

The AUDIO: It will have stereo speakers, but primarily be intended for use with headphones or audio out. It will also have a built-in microphone for use with iChat and when using the device as a speakerphone.

The VIDEO: Like the next generation iPhone coming in June, it will have a forward-facing camera hidden behind the screen for use with iChat. It will be able to do high-resolution video chat over a wireless network or lower-resolution video chat over 3G. It will also provide a mini Display Port interface.

The NETWORKING: This machine will have built-in wireless-N networking as well as a built-in, always-on 3G voice and data connection through another Apple contract with ATT.

The BATTERY: Following the trend in all Apple devices, it will not be user swappable. I feel like Apple will shoot for 8+ hours of battery life. It will be lithium-ion based rather than using the newer silver-zinc technology.

The STORAGE: It will probably have 32 GB of memory/storage, like the highest-end iPhone. Much to the irritation of many folks, it may not include USB ports. Their reasoning for not including it will be that the device would be open to easier cracking of the 3G network link if they included USB ports. If you see USB ports, you probably won’t see built-in 3G. Either that, or the 3G won’t be tied to a single vendor.

The REST: Also included will be an accelerometer, GPS, and ambient light sensors. The App Store and iTunes Store will be there. It will sync with Mobile Me. A cloud-based set of simple productivity and media applications will also be included, perhaps iLife Mobile.

The PRICE: This is where folks will likely be most disappointed. I don’t see Apple introducing this machine for any less than $799. It may even be as high as $1199. The large capacitive touch screen, multi-core processors, and lithium-ion battery will keep the price higher than most people want to pay for a netbook. Some will buy it anyway, because it will look great and be very easy to use.

I see this device being called something like “iPad,” “iTouch,” or perhaps “iPad Touch” and being available in late summer for their back-to-school sales push. You heard it here first.

Technorati Tags: Apple,iPad,iTouch,netbook,predictions

The Palm Pre: iPhone killer?

One of the most impressive devices shown at this year’s CES was introduced  by Palm in the form of the new “Pre.” I know – the name leaves a lot to be desired, but the device looks to be pretty amazing. In the Pre, Palm has created a device which addresses a lot of the long-time complaints of iPhone users. Could this be the device which finally shows Apple how to make a decent phone?

First of all, let’s look at the raw specs on this phone (copied from Palm’s site):

Operating system: Palm® webOS™
Network specs: 3G EVDO Rev A (Sprint)
Display: 3.1-inch touch screen with a vibrant 24-bit color 320×480 resolution HVGA display
Keyboard: Physical QWERTY keyboard
Email: Microsoft Outlook® email with Microsoft® Direct Push Technology
POP3/IMAP (Yahoo, Gmail, AOL, etc).
Messaging: Integrated IM, SMS, and MMS
GPS: Built-in GPS
Digital camera: 3 megapixel camera with LED flash and extended depth of field
Sensors: Ambient light, accelerometer, and proximity
Media formats supported: Audio Formats: MP3, AAC, AAC+, AMR, QCELP, WAV
Video Formats: MPEG-4, H.263, H.264
Image Formats: GIF, Animated GIF, JPEG, PNG, BMP
Wireless connectivity: Wi-Fi 802.11b/g with WPA, WPA2, 801.1x authentication
Bluetooth® 2.1 + EDR with A2DP stereo Bluetooth support
Memory: 8GB of user storage (~7.4GB user available) also USB mass storage support
Phone as laptop modem: Bluetooth tethering supported
Connector: MicroUSB connector with USB 2.0 Hi-Speed, Headphone jack is 3.5mm stereo
Charger: Palm^® Touchstone^™ charging dock
Dimensions
Width: 59.5mm (2.3 inches)
Height: 100.5mm (3.9 inches)
Thickness: 16.95mm (0.67 inches)
Weight: 135 grams (4.76 ounces)

As you can see, the Pre includes many features which still haven’t materialized on the iPhone after two generations and years of development. For example, the Pre includes MMS messaging. Users have been asking for that feature on the iPhone since the release of the original. The Pre also works with Microsoft Outlook’s Direct Push (and ActiveSync) right out of the box.

There are are many other features you won’t find on an iPhone which weren’t listed in the spec sheet above. The Pre will sync with your Outlook, Google, and Facebook calendars simultaneously. The Pre will let you cross-link Contact records which were synced from a number of different sources, including buddy lists, GMail contacts, Outlook, and others. The Pre also combines messages sent by the same person across multiple sources based on your contact cross-links. This makes it easier to track ongoing conversations with the same contact even when it starts in IM and ends with an email.

The Pre will let you open multiple applications at once. There is turn-by-turn navigation using the built-in GPS. The camera has much higher resolution and a built-in LED flash. It supports non-Apple standard file formats for a wider variety of media. It supports stereo Bluetooth headsets. The battery is removable. It even allows modem tethering for laptops right out of the box.

Another cool new feature is the Touchstone charging dock. To charge the Pre, you simply lay it on the cylindrical block. There are no wires to connect to your phone. When you’re ready to leave, you just pick the phone up and go.

Like the iPhone, the Pre has a built-in WiFi b/g chip which speeds up your Internet browsing when you are near a hot spot. It supports the standard multi-touch gestures, just like the iPhone, including “pinch,” “spread,” and “flip.” There are built-in chat functions, but unlike the iPhone, it lets you track the online status of your buddy lists, as well. Also like the iPhone, it can be operated in landscape mode.

Most importantly, to some users, the Pre has a slide-out QWERTY keyboard. So you don’t have to worry about precisely placing your fat fingers on small areas of a touch screen any longer. Only time will tell how good this keyboard feels, but it looks to be about as good as a crackberry keyboard, which is to say, usable.

One down side I can see with the device is the “holy crap, I’m a fat-boy” design. This thing won’t win any beauty contests with a figure like that. It is a pudgy little gadget with far too much roundness for my tastes. Your mileage will vary, of course, and you might well find it appealing.

Another potential down side is that it is tied to Sprint only at this time. Granted, this may be a benefit for some customers. The majority of us are with other carriers, though, so we will just have to wait patiently for Palm to release version for other 3G networks.

Overall, the Pre looks to be a worthy challenger to the iPhone. One might even say the first worthy challenger, as other efforts to date have been rather disappointing. As I find out more about this interesting device, I will keep you updated. Stay tuned.

Technorati Tags: Palm,iPhone 3G,Pre,Phones,Technology,CES

2018: 20 Predictions for the coming decade.

1. In 2018, Intel introduces the first 128 core desktop processors using the new VCore 256 bit low power architecture based on an 18nm chip fabrication process. The processor has 32 MB of L2 cache per core and starts at 2.4 GHz. Pricing starts at $210 each in lots of 1,000.

2. In 2018, mainstream games and applications finally begin to fully-utilize 4 of the CPU cores and set their sights on using 8 cores in another decade.

3. In 2018, despite lack of progress on CPU utilization, games now routinely require graphic cards with at least 4096 cores, 64 GB of RAM, their own external power supplies, refrigerant cooling systems, and special purpose optical bus connections. Users complain about the extreme prices, and the massive noise the compressors make while the units are running. They also complain about the 40% rise in their electric bills, and lack of widespread game support, but they keep buying the new cards because the hardware demonstration animations look so cool. Quake 6 now routinely runs at over 2,000 FPS in photo-realistic mode but the new QED Crystalline-Lattice displays still only update at 60 Hz.

4. The Torvalds Foundation announces core-level native support for the new 256 bit CPUs in it’s next kernel release. Linux users worldwide immediately begin to argue publicly about which of the approximately 342,000 distributions will make the best use of this new kernel.

5. Apple announces a 256 bit native version of OS XV with full support for up to 8192 cores and warns of future plans to phase out 128 bit support in the next full point release. Their share of the installed base in the US reaches 20%. Their worldwide share remains steady at 9% as Ubuntu Peter Piper gains even more ground in the world PC market.

6. Microsoft proudly announces that the 64 bit version of the upcoming Windows X (10) will finally be the default version installed on all new systems.  Then, they quietly announce they will continue to maintain a 32 bit version for volume corporate customers still using 30 year old custom applications. When asked if they have future plans to support 128 bit or the newest 256 bit CPUs, they say, “we don’t comment on future development plans.” Huge corporations applaud the backward compatibility of the available 32 bit version and promptly ignore the 64 bit version. Consumers, 85% of whom now have 128 bit CPUs and 64-256 GB of RAM in their PCs, again consider the burning question of why they still use Windows after nearly half a century of Microsoft’s OS trailing new technology by years.

7. Apple introduces the iScape(tm) Virtual Landscape Projection system. It uses technology licensed from recently-purchased Imax to project realistic environments in three dimensions in your living room. It allows you to listen to music from your iTunes library while lying in a garden meadow on a mountainside in Switzerland. It allows you to dance to techno in a club in Miami, or sit at the 50 yard line every time your favorite team plays football. Best of all, it looks like a shiny aluminum modern art sculpture sitting in the middle of your living room.

8. The first molecular duplication of a living organism is performed in a laboratory in Europe. Using direct atomic manipulation, scientists are able to assemble the basic molecular building blocks to perfectly duplicate a single-celled organism. When it is finished, it immediately springs to life causing scientific celebration as well as incredible philosophical and religious controversy. Two weeks later, the lead scientist for the project is bludgeoned to death with a 5 iron on live TV by a frenzied Christian minister screaming about the sanctity of life.

9. Construction is proceeding briskly in New Manhattan, NJ. Many corporations who once operated in the now-flooded city of Manhattan are finally reopening in their new facilities. The huge number of ex-Floridians who were displaced as most of the state was overrun by the rising water tables are finally getting settled into their new cities nationwide. A steady stream of hurricanes now runs non-stop throughout the entire year with the largest covering an area roughly half the size of the U.S.

10. After decades of battling earthquakes, mudslides, and quickly-rising sea levels, ironic horror grips the nation as Malibu is completely destroyed on live TV by the first category 5 Pacific hurricane to hit the greater Los Angeles area. It results in the deaths of thousands of has-been movie stars, causes $240 billion in property damage, and results in the total collapse of the plastic surgery market in California. Hollywood Squares goes off the air for 6 months as they scramble to find stars to fill all of the empty squares. In other news, the city of Toronto is renamed “New Hollywood” by the Canadian government and yet another horribly stupid remake of “Knight Rider” appears on TV.

11. After their grandchildren show them videos on YouTube showing that Antarctica is now covered with mud instead of ice, the US Congress spends 8 months carefully creating legislation to begin funding a 20 year study to see if global climate change might be a real problem they need to address someday. Unfortunately, they tack on $800 billion in unrelated pet project spending causing it to be vetoed when it reaches the White House. As a result, the government still does nothing and the coastlines continue to disappear under rising sea levels. Poor folks along the recently-created Southern Gulf Coast of Georgia begin to make plans to move further inland to reach higher ground.

12. The first general purpose android household servants begin to appear from several manufacturers. They cost $130,000-$200,000 each initially, but the wealthy buy them like crazy so they can fire their illegal-alien housekeepers and nannies who they believe are stealing from them. Japanese toy companies release simplified high-impact plastic versions a year later for $129.95 and even cheaper copies from Taiwan appear on eBay for as little as $34.95.

13. In 2012, an alien race detected the small space/time distortions we were creating with our Large Hadron Collider experiments and decided we were finally advanced enough to announce their presence to our world. After first contact was made in late 2012, our governments spent the next 6 years bickering over who should represent the world when negotiating treaties and technology-exchange agreements. No significant progress was made during the previous 6 years, so the visitors decide to leave in disgust partway through 2018. A significant number of our most intelligent people choose to go with them, setting back most active research projects on Earth by several decades and causing a technological Dark Age to arrive.

14. George Foreman releases an updated version of his grill which stands completely vertical while cooking, uses high-tech, instant-on, ceramic elements to cook the meat evenly, and has a touch screen interface which can also browse the Internet. The stainless steel version sells like crazy at $499.

15. The PlayStation 6 is announced in time for Christmas. It will sell for $1299. The lack of advance development units for game companies means it will have zero software available for at least 18 months after launch. But the specs look amazing on paper, so kids start begging their parents to buy one anyway.

16. Bose releases the first ZERO speaker surround sound system which uses high energy electromagnetic pulses to scramble your brain into thinking you are hearing sound all around you. In response to widespread concern about potential brain damage, Bose later adds a filter to prevent the playing of German opera and anything by the Jonas Brothers.

17. The electoral college is finally eliminated in 2017 when, after a record election turnout in November 2016, 87% of the population votes for one candidate and the other candidate somehow still becomes President. After careful thought about ways they could improve on our current election system, it is replaced by Girl Scouts selling raffle tickets for a random drawing with the Presidency as the prize. The move is applauded as an infinitely more accurate representation of the will of the people than the electoral college.

18. The host of the Today Show suddenly pops into another dimension in mid-sentence during a special live broadcast causing quantum theorists to run through offices all over the world yelling, “I told everyone that could happen!” The host later reappears in a Turkish bath house holding a potted plant and finishes his sentence.

19. The NSA, while routinely monitoring the communications of all Americans, learns that the Democratic Senator from California is about to propose legislation outlawing their covert activities against Americans. The next morning, the Senator’s car coincidentally explodes as he is driving to work. The NSA quickly releases “evidence” that terrorists were to blame and calls for additional powers to help them fight terrorism. There is public outcry about the country not being safe enough and the President, at the urging of Congress, signs an executive order allowing the NSA to implant chips in all Americans’ brains which allow them to monitor our thoughts.

20. The Coca Cola Bottling Company spends 173 million dollars developing and advertising a new flavor of Coke called Coke Ultimate. The public promptly  ignores it and continues drinking the same old Coke they’ve always been drinking.

Those are just a few of my predictions for the next decade. I hope you enjoyed them.

Time for an Energy Revolution!

Even if you are one of the very few who don’t agree with the many thousands of climate scientists who say we are on the brink of a disastrous change in world climate, there are still many other strong incentives for us to shift to clean and renewable energy sources.
 
For example, the instability of foreign oil supplies has caused our gasoline prices to virtually triple in the past 8 years. Oil is also the reason we are fighting and dying in a war to stabilize the middle east. We literally pay $700 billion per year to other countries to feed our oil addiction and that figure is growing quickly. In some cases we are giving money to governments who use it to fund armies who then shoot at us.

If we were energy independent, that would be $700 billion feeding into our own economy and $700 billion less pumped into the economies of countries who are quickly becoming global threats. Removing our dependence on unstable regions of the world would go a long way to stabilizing our economy. Pumping less money into their economies would also make it more difficult for them to build armies.

Another great reason to achieve energy independence using clean energy is that it will create a lot of “green collar” jobs. These are semi-skilled jobs created in the production, installation, and maintenance of renewable energy equipment. This would allow many of the folks displaced from assembly line or construction jobs to find new work with minimal training. It would be a boon to the lower and middle class. In fact, a massive shift toward wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal energy would likely create millions of new jobs that pay pretty well. High unemployment is one of many things contributing to our current financial crisis and green energy industries could help solve it.

Many ask, “If we are trying to break our addiction to oil, what will we use for our vehicles?” That’s a great question. What if I told you we already have an abundant supply of a clean transportation fuel which costs about half as much as gasoline at the pump? I’m talking about compressed natural gas (CNG). A nationwide switch to CNG for transportation could break our addiction to oil very quickly. When I say quickly, I mean a matter of years, not decades.

Why CNG? We have a lot more domestic natural gas reserves than oil. It also works perfectly as a transportation fuel. In fact, 8 million vehicles already use it worldwide. It burns clean, so it is much better for the environment. You can convert existing vehicles to use it. The conversion cost would be low enough that the government could pay the vehicle conversion cost rather than sending us a $1500 check to buy our votes this year. It is even being used to generate electricity.

So why haven’t we all switched to CNG already? Good question. Perhaps we should ask our leaders, the auto makers, and most importantly, the oil companies who also happen to own most of the natural gas reserves. All three are guilty to some extent, but the oil companies are the ones who control both the fuel supply and our leaders. It is the oil companies who spend many millions lobbying our leaders in order to influence legislation, regulations, and the adoption of clean air standards. It is the oil companies that keep our nation from following CO2 emission standards endorsed by most of the rest of the world. It is the oil companies who originated the “drill baby drill” chant.

If you think about it, “Big Oil” has become the “Big Tobacco” of this century. They know in their hearts they are killing our planet. We also know they are killing our planet. But just like the tobacco companies in the 80’s and 90’s, the general population hasn’t tried to fight “Big Oil” because we have simply been too addicted to their products. It’s high time for that to change. It’s time to kick the oil habit. We have the alternatives available.

With all of the technological progress which has been made in the past 150 years, and our ever-increasing demand for energy, it is hard to believe that we are still using the same few fossil fuels we used at the beginning of the industrial revolution. Solar and wind technologies have existed for decades, yet we have put little money or effort into refining them. Geothermal and tidal forces still remain nearly untapped. We are generating our energy as if we still live in 1900.

The time for renewable, clean energy sources has arrived. Now is the time to put them all to use. Now is the time to bring our money home to rebuild our own future. Now is the time to stop letting the radical leaders of a few tiny nations dictate the future of the most powerful nation on Earth. Now is the time to create millions of new jobs while creating a brighter, cleaner future for our descendants. The stability of our economy and the future of our planet depend on making some significant changes in how we produce the energy we need. In short, it is time for an energy revolution.